If you’ve been following Hurricane Milton’s path toward Florida, you may have noticed a number of weather forecasters explaining that if the hurricane “wobbles” off path, it could have huge impacts on where the storm makes landfall and the amount of damage residents can expect.
Here, we break down exactly why that is.
What does it mean for a hurricane to wobble?
Powerful storms don’t travel in a straight and narrow course. They tend to “wobble,” or make small movements on the system’s path.
These movements may appear insignificant but can make all the difference in a storm’s strength and impact.
A wobble also has the potential to impact storm surge levels. For Hurricane Milton, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) predicts a large destructive storm surge of 10 feet or higher along a portion of Florida’s west-central coast.
“Any slight wobble Hurricane Milton makes will make a big difference in who gets the most storm surge,” reported The Weather Channel. “If the storm tracks just to the south of Tampa, then the surge won’t be as bad. The smallest wobble can make the biggest difference.”
Is Hurricane Milton predicted to wobble?
NBC’s local Tampa station WFLA has its own live Wobble Tracker, a tool that tracks wobbles and can help determine where Hurricane Milton is headed in real time and which cities it’s predicted to hit.
By midday Wednesday, the forecast for the Category 4 hurricane shifted south again, with projected landfall near or south of Sarasota in the late evening, according to CNN. But this morning, Milton was forecast to hit Tampa Bay. That slight but important shift south by 10 miles is the result of Tuesday’s significant wobble toward Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula. The storm’s path could still change.
The hurricane, which has shifted between a Category 4 and 5 storm, is traveling northeast at 17 miles per hour, with maximum sustained winds of 145 miles per hour, according to the NHC.
How to track Hurricane Milton in real time
As we have said, hurricanes can change paths quickly, which is why tracking the storm and how it wobbles is so important.
For updated information, advisories, and maps showing projected and traveled paths, check out these resources: